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New poll shows Republicans’ tax plan in battleground states is thought of by many as unfair dud
April 15, 2018

CLICK TO ENLARGE: Chart from memo accompanying the poll results by pollster Stan Greenberg and AFT president Randi Weingarten
Updated 10:29 am with new information
Chronicle staff

(NATIONAL) – Some Republicans, perhaps many thought they’d ride a wave of gratitude from voters going into the mid term elections for creating a tax plan that gave large, permanent tax breaks to the already wealthy and to big corporations while handing out much smaller and only temporary breaks to regular working class Americans.

They were wrong, according to a new poll done by Democracy Corps and the American Federation of Teachers.

It shows that in House battleground voting districts, relatively few people think those tax bennies were handed out fairly or that the tax cuts even benefit them and their families.

The poll shows that the more people learn, the more voters are motivated to vote for Democrats in the mid terms. The survey, a poll of 1,000 voters was done by Greenberg Quinlan & Rosner. Some results:

~ At the time the polling was done, that snapshot in time showed a generic advantage for Democrats of 10 percentage points nationally and an advantage of 16 points in the battleground districts. However the polling in the battleground districts had a smaller base sample.

~ A memo that comes with the poll results by pollster Stan Greenberg and AFT president Randi Weingarten say the survey shows that Democrats, continuing to loudly harp about that tax overhaul as well as Social Security, Medicare and infrastructure can pretty much nullify any boost that Republicans hope they’ll get from the economy humming along nicely.

~ Democratic voter intensity is strong and it’s driven by a heavy dislike of Donald Trump and not just Trump but his entire cabinet (in particular Betsy Devos) while at the same time Republican interest is soft.

~ The memo says straight out, “The midterm election is starting to break against Donald Trump and the Republican Party in profound ways and running on the economy and the new tax cut helps further solidify advantages for Democrats.”

~ That memo also says the poll numbers, “Reflect the same conditions witnessed in the real world of special elections where Democrats have won: differential enthusiasm, but also some movement of Trump voters. Democrats hold a 10-point lead in the generic vote in this poll, produced by strong leads with people of color, millennial women, unmarried women, and college women. This poll also shows stunning new breakthroughs with seniors, where Democrats are ahead, and the white working class, which has now fractured along gender lines.”

~ The Democrats’ strong disapproval of Trump exceeds Republicans’ strong approval of Trump by almost 30 points, and the generic margin grows to a stunning 16-points among the 50 percent of registered voters with the highest interest in the 2018 election.

~ “Progressives should stop worrying that the passage of the tax cut shows the GOP is delivering on their signature promise. We now know from this poll that the tax cut is as much a voting issue for its opponents as it is for its supporters, for Democrats as for Republicans, for liberals as for conservatives…We have already seen evidence of this in races like the [Pennsylvania-18] special election where the Republicans pulled their tax cut ads.”

Read the full memo on the poll here

Another poll shows Trump’s job approval numbers as lowest on record

The new ABC-Washington Post News Poll, produced by Langer Research Associates shows President Trump’s average approval rating after 15 months in office (38-57 percent approve/disapprove) is the lowest on record in such polls dating back to the Truman administration.

In addition, Trump’s “strong” disapprovers outnumber strong approvers by nearly 2-1. Some other items from that poll:

~ By a nearly 2-1 margin (61-32 percent), the public sees him unfavorably “as a person” in this poll and there is a close link between that view of Mr. Trump and his job approval rating: Among those who dislike the President personally, 84 percent also disapprove of his work in office.

~ The President’s rating for handling the economy – which is better than his overall job approval rating – is still weak when compared to another President.. The last time consumer confidence was this high, President Bill Clinton had just left office with a 76 percent approval rating for his handling of the economy and that is 30 points higher than Trump’s is now. Mr. Clinton’s overall job approval was 65 percent, 25 points higher than Trump’s.



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